Forex Portfolio Update | MulderFX.com

In our previous Forex Portfolio Update last week we announced not to expect great movements on the Forex market. Only the Swiss Franc (CHF) was the exception. The SNB says to be ready to "take the measures necessary" to counter deflation, fueling intervention speculation. We conclude that around current levels a spike up is more likely than to be bearish. A signal for a weaker CHF in 2011? Have we seen the bottom in the EUR/CHF (1.2438) and GBP/CHF (1.46215) last week? We think so!

The development of the return during the week was fierce. Mostly because of the open CHF positions the return on Thursday morning was at a given moment more than -30%. How volatile the CHF moved last week, 36 hours later we closed the week with -6.5% for the month. We still try next week to positively close this month. In this period of the year more volatility on day base is expected because of the lower liquidity. We are curious.

The "commodity" currencies: Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) were the winners of the past week. The oil price is at highest levels in the last two years, gold is almost all-time high and copper is around all time highs. Next week, the AUD and CAD remained well against other currencies. Our expectation is that commodity prices will not significantly fall, especially in a week where trade volumes are low, we think a movement up is more likely. For next year we are less positive about the AUD and CAD.

Forecasts next week
Even more than last week, the movements on the Forex market will not be significant, depending or there will be new bad news from Europe released. Our Swiss Franc positions will be held until the end of the year. We will buy back these positions in the first week of the new year.

Next week will be our last update on this exciting year. In addition, we also mention targets for 'the most traded' currency pairs for whole of 2011. This will be a 'must read' post. For example: Target 2011 EUR/CHF 1.4500, current level 1.2620 or AUD / USD 0.8000, current level 1.0040.

Title will be: "Expect the Unexpected"

We also like to add your 'unlikely' targets of currency pairs. Do you believe that your "unlikely" target, can be truth in 2011, do not hesitate to fill in the form below! don't send lots of pages of technical and/or fundamental underpinnings. No, just your gut feeling and/or amusing basis. Example: EUR/USD target 1.00, because I am American and like to travel "cheap" in Europe in 2011.

We wish you a Merry Christmas and a healthy and profitable 2011.