In our last Update of 2010, we mentioned that for 2011 we expected a weakening of the CHF. Mainly because of our CHF positions 2011 started really good. A return of more than 20% (after the deposit). In addition, the EUR/USD helped our performance. Almost at the 1.3430 peak, we went short, we already had two open short positions. At the end of the week the EUR/USD at 1.29, a movement that we had expected, but not so fast and to that level yet. We therefore will be buying the EUR/USD below 1.29 and we expect a rebound in the coming weeks.
Lots of macro economic news this week, with very different outcomes. Disappointing figures from Germany on the job market. Better factory orders from the U.S. Every first week of the month all eyes are on the US NFP. They were disappointing, especially in the light of Wednesdays ADP Employment Change, which was much better than expected. The dollar last week was clearly the winner. The USD index rose last week from just over to 79.00 to above 81.00. Here is a resistance level, this supports us to consider a long position in EUR/USD next week.
Forecast next week
The agenda for next week is full of important events. Interest rate decisions, retail sales, trade balance figures, unemployment figures from different continents. The focus will still be on the news that will reach us about Portugal, Greece and Spain. News that will bring us more worries or relieve? We are curious and after a very sharp decline last week in the euro and sharp rise in USD, we are bullish on the USD dollar against all majors. The resistance of USD index at 81, gives little space upwards.
We expect to finalize the conditions of our Forex Promotion at the end of week 3.